The Beacon Report – September 2022.
There was a slight rise in Single-Family Residential (SFR) inventory in Bend and Redmond last month, inching up to nearly two months; an inventory level not seen since late 2019 and early 2020.
Days on market (DOM) also increased but remains lower than the levels seen during the boom of 2005-2006, which did not get below 71 DOM.
The Bend SFR median sale price dropped slightly last month while the median sale price in Redmond increased to $542k.
Being curious, I reviewed historical data for the number of sales and DOM in 2005 and 2006 when the SFR market was red hot, then compared those figures to 2016-2021.
| Year | Low | High | Adj Low | Adj high |
| 2005 | 71 | 125 | 31 | 85 |
| 2006 | 88 | 135 | 48 | 95 |
| 2007 | 116 | 193 | 76 | 153 |
| 2016 | 70 | 121 | 30 | 81 |
| 2017 | 63 | 132 | 23 | 92 |
| 2018 | 64 | 110 | 24 | 70 |
| 2019 | 53 | 110 | 13 | 70 |
| 2020 | 4 | 115 | 75 | |
| 2021 | 4 | 12 |
Note that marketing times were calculated differently beginning in April of 2020. In preceding years, the marketing time was calculated from the list date to the sale date. As of April 2020, that changed to calculating from list date to contract date. Below is a table that adjusts the DOM prior to April 2020 in order to account for a 40-day escrow period between the pending date to the close date.
The high noted in 2020 was prior to the change in the DOM calculation and is therefore adjusted in the above table.
The 4 to 15-day marketing time remains lower than what is seen in past years (adjusted) and will likely increase as the SFR market balances.
The number of sales in early 2020 followed the same trend as in 2016-2019, but with a sharp increase taking place in July 2020 when sales reached 318 with a median DOM of 25 days. In July of 2019, there were 238 sales with a DOM of 59 days. The number of sales in 2021 began to settle back into a similar cycle as seen in 2016-2019. However, the marketing time in 2021 was significantly shorter – ranging from 4 days most of the year and ending with 12 days in December 2021.
So far in 2022, the number of sales peaked in May at 218 and the marketing time for much of this year was under one week. Last month was the highest DOM (15 days) since August of 2020, which was 25 days.
Demand has softened and the number of sales is in decline this time of year compared to prior years. The longer marketing times mentioned above are to be expected as a result. However, the current DOM remains at low levels when compared to historical periods like 2005-2006 and yet I expect marketing times to continue to increase.
My curiosity sated; I will now let you draw your own conclusions. Thank you for following along on this data journey. The link to the most recent report is below.
– Donnie
The Beacon Report – September 2022
The Beacon Report is compiled each month by Donnie Montagner (State Certified Residential Appraiser) of Beacon Appraisal Group LLC with information obtained from the MLS of Central Oregon with permission from the Central Oregon Association of Realtors®.
